On March 12, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its latest monthly report that the global oil market is facing the most severe supply disruption in history due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nearly disrupted and storage facilities nearing capacity, Gulf states have been forced to cut oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day, and over 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity has been shut down.     Before the conflict, approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products were transported through the Strait of Hormuz; now, this figure has plummeted to negligible levels. The report states that if shipping does not resume soon, the global crude oil supply gap will widen further. The report projects a reduction of 8 million barrels per day in global oil supply in March, with over 4 million barrels per day of refining capacity at risk. The diesel and jet fuel markets are particularly vulnerable due to blocked exports. The report also points out that insufficient available feedstock will restrict production in other regions, potentially leading to supply shortages as late as 2026. In 2025, Gulf producers exported 3.3 million barrels of refined petroleum products and 1.5 million barrels of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) per day.   The report shows that while increased production in non-OPEC+ countries like Kazakhstan and Russia has eased supply tensions, this improvement is insufficient to fully offset the pressures facing the global market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global oil supply will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026. This growth is primarily driven by increased production from non-OPEC+ countries. However, it should be noted that the extent of the reduction in oil supply depends on the duration of the conflict and the degree of disruption to trade flows.   The report predicts that flight cancellations and LPG supply disruptions in the Middle East will reduce oil demand by 1 million barrels per day in March and April compared to previous forecasts. The military conflict in Iran and its surrounding regions has not only shaken the global energy market but has also significantly impacted the international ethylene industry and its entire supply chain. Its negative effects are spreading from upstream oil, along core intermediates such as ethylene and VAM (Vinyl Acetate Monomer), and further downstream to fine chemicals such as VAE emulsions. From Europe to Asia, soaring raw material costs and the risk of supply chain disruptions are causing widespread concern in the industry.   Global Ethylene Supply Chain Crisis Tensions in Iran are directly impacting the global ethylene supply chain. As the Middle East's second-largest ethylene producer, Iran has a capacity of approximately 7.88 million tons, accounting for 23% of the region's total. Disruptions to this scale of production directly push up the global cost center for chemical products. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global energy shipping chokepoint, handles approximately 20% of global crude oil seaborne trade and a significant proportion of chemical shipments. With Iran's announcement of the strait's closure, concerns about logistical disruptions immediately translated into a market risk premium.   Approximately 11% to 15% of global ethylene and polyethylene supply is directly affected by this conflict, and related chemical prices have already begun to rise. In Europe, March ethylene monthly contract negotiations stalled due to soaring oil prices, with the initially expected increase of €35/ton quickly replaced by expectations of €50-60/ton, reflecting widespread market concerns about supply disruptions. Asian markets also reacted sharply, with naphtha prices surging to multi-month highs. Domestic polyolefin (PP/PE) futures prices in China followed suit, with the spot market shifting from routine restocking to defensive stockpiling.     Downstream supply chains are under pressure This crisis is rapidly spreading along the oil → ethylene → VAM → VAE supply chain. Due to extremely tight ethylene supply, VAM (vinyl acetate monomer) production is directly constrained by raw material shortages, and its market price is facing the risk of soaring. As the core downstream product of VAM, the supply chain stability of VAE (vinyl acetate-ethylene copolymer emulsion) has been severely impacted. The industry generally expects that as VAM costs are passed on, VAE emulsion prices will inevitably rise. However, against the backdrop of widespread industry-wide operating restrictions and a significant reduction in expected VAE output due to insufficient VAM supply, JiangSu ElephChem Holding Limited is able to provide a stable supply of VAM and downstream VAE products.   Website: www.elephchem.com whatsapp: (+)86 13851435272 E-mail: admin@elephchem.com

1. Overview of the Petroleum and Chemical Industry Prosperity Index The business climate index for the oil and gas extraction industry was 85.99, a decrease of 12.36 percentage points month-on-month. In the past two months, influenced by geopolitical tensions, crude oil prices have continued to rise. However, current crude oil prices carry a significant risk premium, coupled with the previous six-month period of "price decline and profit shrinkage," leading companies to question the sustainability of the crude oil price recovery and maintain a cautious production decision. Changes in inventory turnover reflect the end of the phased destocking in January. With rising crude oil prices, companies may be holding onto inventory in anticipation of further price increases, and coupled with the approaching Spring Festival, downstream demand is expected to decrease, resulting in a slowdown in inventory reduction.  The business climate index for the fuel processing industry was 102.18, a decrease of 1.94 percentage points month-on-month. The fuel processing industry exhibits slight differences among products. Diesel end-user consumption hit a new low for the traditional annual trough, highlighting the imbalance between supply and demand. While gasoline demand was supported by short-term travel during the Spring Festival holiday, it quickly declined afterward.  The prosperity index for the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry was 105.63, a decrease of 1.71 percentage points month-on-month. The moderate recovery in upstream crude oil prices has not yet pushed up raw material costs, and downstream chemical product prices remain relatively firm, maintaining profit margins. However, production activity decreased due to plant shutdowns and maintenance during the Spring Festival holiday, and downstream new purchases decreased, resulting in an accumulation of finished product inventory and a decline in the industry's prosperity index.  The manufacturing prosperity index for rubber, plastics, and other polymer products was 107.35, a decrease of 3.54 percentage points month-on-month. In January, the industry's prosperity rose due to both raw material cost advantages and seasonal stockpiling demand. However, in early February, downstream stockpiling slowed as the Spring Festival approached, and post-holiday demand recovery was slow in the latter half of the month. Reduced new orders led to increased inventory, causing the industry prosperity index to decline. Currently, the industry is in a phase of inventory digestion, and its future prosperity will depend on the recovery of domestic and international demand.       2. Hotspot Analysis and Future Outlook 2.1 Escalating Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East and Rising Crude Oil Prices In February, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply, becoming the main driver of rising crude oil prices. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on Tehran, the capital of Iran, and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil transportation route. This event marked a shift from "trade expectation" to "trade reality" in geopolitical conflict, triggering serious market concerns about disruptions to crude oil supply. As a result, oil prices rose rapidly, and the geopolitical risk premium increased significantly. It is estimated that current oil prices already include a risk premium of approximately $8-10 per barrel. Furthermore, a significant proportion of petrochemical products such as Polyvinyl Alcohol (PVA), Polyvinyl Butyral Resin (PVB), and fuel oil are transported through the Strait of Hormuz annually; the continuation of the conflict will inevitably affect the prices of these related products. 2.2 Sluggish Production, Strong Consumption, and Slow Inventory Replenishment This year, benefiting from the longest Spring Festival holiday in history, cross-regional travel demand for family visits and tourism was concentrated, leading to frequent highway traffic peaks and directly boosting gasoline consumption. However, in stark contrast to the surge in residential travel, industrial and infrastructure production activities generally slowed down during the Spring Festival, with diesel consumption entering its traditional annual low period. Daily consumption declined significantly compared to the previous period, and refinery and social inventory pressures continued to increase.  During the Spring Festival consumer market, sales of home appliances and 3C digital products were brisk, providing a temporary boost to demand for related petrochemical raw materials in the upstream rubber, plastics, and other polymer product manufacturing industries, improving industry expectations for post-holiday market performance. However, with the end of the holiday, restocking intentions weakened, and terminal distributors generally entered a destocking cycle, leading to a marginal slowdown in new orders for petrochemical companies. Overall, February was characterized by hot travel, sluggish production, strong consumption, and slow restocking, clearly demonstrating the inherent logic of differentiation within the petrochemical industry and a general correction in its overall prosperity.   3. Outlook for the Oil and Chemical Industry In March 2026, the oil and chemical industry will continue to be affected by macroeconomic factors, costs, and demand. On the macro level, the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (NPC and CPPCC) will release a series of policy signals, pointing the way for market trends in 2026. Regarding crude oil prices, if the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East do not ease and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, crude oil risk premiums and high volatility are expected to continue in March, potentially leading to further price increases. On the demand side, the resumption of work and production in downstream industries after the Spring Festival was slow, and rising crude oil prices further squeezed the profits of the petrochemical industry. End-user companies maintained only essential purchases and lacked the motivation for concentrated restocking. Whether the previous restocking demand from midstream and downstream industries based on cost advantages can be successfully converted into end-user consumption, and whether the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" can arrive as scheduled, are key to the recovery of the industry's prosperity. Based on a comprehensive assessment of historical seasonal patterns and current data, the petrochemical industry prosperity index is expected to show a downward trend in March.   Website: www.elephchem.com Whatsapp: (+)86 13851435272 E-mail: admin@elephchem.com

 Celebre o Ano Novo com a JiangSu ElephChem Holding Limited! À medida que as cores vibrantes do Festival da Primavera começam a iluminar as ruas e o espírito de renovação preenche o ar, a Jiangsu ElephChem Holding Limited estende as suas mais calorosas saudações e os seus mais sinceros votos aos seus parceiros globais, clientes e dedicados colaboradores.O Ano Novo Lunar, também conhecido como Festival da Primavera, é o feriado tradicional mais importante da cultura chinesa — um momento para reuniões familiares, reflexão sobre as conquistas do ano anterior e definição de metas ambiciosas para o futuro.  Refletindo sobre o crescimentoO último ano foi uma jornada de "Transformação Química do Mundo". Através da inovação constante e do compromisso com a excelência na indústria química, a ElephChem alcançou novos marcos. Devemos esse sucesso à confiança inabalável de nossos clientes internacionais e ao trabalho árduo de toda a nossa equipe.   O Espírito do CavaloEm sintonia com o espírito festivo (e com a majestosa imagem do cavalo, que simboliza velocidade, força e sucesso), esperamos "galopar" para o novo ano com ainda mais ímpeto. Mantemos nosso compromisso de fornecer soluções químicas de alta qualidade e promover o desenvolvimento sustentável em todo o mundo.  Olhando para o futuroQue o Ano Novo Lunar traga a você e seus entes queridos alegria, prosperidade e saúde sem limites. Que continuemos a trabalhar juntos para criar um futuro mais brilhante e inovador através do poder da química.  Aviso de FeriadoPara que nossa equipe possa celebrar este momento tão especial com suas famílias, informamos nosso horário de funcionamento durante o feriado:Período de férias: 15 a 23 de fevereiroResumo de Negócios: 24 de fevereiro  Feliz Ano Novo Lunar!Desejo a você um ano de conquistas e abundância! Site: www.elephchem.comWhatsApp: (+)86 13851435272E-mail: admin@elephchem.com

Em 16 de janeiro de 2026, a Secretaria de Comércio Exterior do Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria, Comércio e Serviços (MDIC/SECEX) emitiu o Aviso nº 2 de 2026. A pedido da empresa brasileira ASK Crios Produtos Químicos Ltda, o Brasil iniciou formalmente uma investigação antidumping sobre produtos de resina fenólica originários da China.O início desta investigação indica riscos crescentes de conformidade comercial e de custos para os chineses. resina fenólica exportações para o mercado brasileiro. Recomenda-se aos exportadores relevantes que acompanhem de perto o caso e avaliem proativamente seu potencial impacto em suas operações comerciais.  1. Potencial impacto nas exportações chinesas de resina fenólica para o BrasilCom base nos casos antidumping anteriores do Brasil, se a investigação resultar em uma determinação final afirmativa, os seguintes impactos poderão ocorrer:Um aumento significativo nos custos de exportação de resinas fenólicas originárias da China.Erosão da competitividade de preços no mercado brasileiroUma mudança por parte dos consumidores brasileiros em direção a fontes alternativas de fornecimento.Aumento da incerteza quanto à rentabilidade e ao desempenho dos contratos existentes.Para Resina fenólica formaldeído Para produtores e exportadores que dependem fortemente do mercado brasileiro, manter um modelo único de exportação direta pode apresentar riscos operacionais e comerciais elevados. 2. Papel dos Acordos Comerciais com Países Terceiros na Gestão de RiscosEm um contexto legal e em conformidade com as normas, os acordos comerciais com países terceiros tornaram-se uma abordagem de gestão de riscos comumente adotada no comércio internacional de produtos químicos.Os princípios subjacentes incluem:As medidas antidumping são aplicadas com base no país de origem determinado.Se os produtos forem comercializados por meio de um terceiro país em total conformidade com os regulamentos aplicáveis.E obter o estatuto de origem correspondente de acordo com as regras de origem.As medidas comerciais aplicáveis ​​à entrada no Brasil serão determinadas com base na origem reconhecida.Todas as atividades relacionadas devem cumprir rigorosamente as leis, regulamentos e normas de origem das jurisdições relevantes. 3. Principais Considerações de Conformidade em Operações Comerciais de Resina FenólicaDadas as características dos produtos de resina fenólica, as empresas devem prestar especial atenção aos seguintes aspectos ao planejar suas estruturas de comércio e logística:♣ Seleção de países-polo comercialAlguns países do Sudeste Asiático são frequentemente avaliados devido à sua infraestrutura consolidada para o comércio de produtos químicos e às relações comerciais estáveis ​​com a América Latina. As decisões finais devem ser baseadas na forma do produto, na classificação HS e nos requisitos alfandegários brasileiros.♣ Gestão de Conformidade de OrigemIndependentemente de haver ou não processamento adicional envolvido, a estrita observância das regras de origem é essencial, incluindo:Conformidade com os padrões de determinação de origemSolicitação legal de Certificados de Origem (CO) e documentação relacionada.Consistência entre documentos comerciais, logísticos e alfandegários.♣ Estrutura de Logística e DocumentaçãoAs rotas comerciais devem ser cuidadosamente planejadas para garantir que os processos de transporte, desembaraço aduaneiro e reexportação estejam em conformidade com as regulamentações locais, mantendo, ao mesmo tempo, um sistema de documentação completo e consistente para mitigar os riscos de não conformidade. 4. Recomendações para exportadores: avaliação inicial e planejamento estratégicoEm resposta à investigação antidumping do Brasil sobre resinas fenólicas chinesas, recomenda-se aos exportadores que considerem as seguintes medidas:Analise prontamente o escopo do produto e os códigos HS relevantes envolvidos.Tenha cautela ao aceitar novos pedidos de exportação direta para o Brasil.Desenvolver opções alternativas e diversificadas de vias comerciais em paralelo.Trabalhe com prestadores de serviços profissionais experientes para garantir a conformidade regulamentar.O planejamento antecipado e a avaliação sistemática podem reduzir significativamente o impacto operacional e financeiro durante o período de investigação e após a decisão final. 5. ConclusãoO Brasil iniciou uma investigação antidumping contra empresas chinesas. Resina fenólica formaldeído Destaca o ambiente comercial global cada vez mais rigoroso para produtos químicos. Os riscos associados à dependência de uma única rota de exportação estão se tornando mais evidentes.Nesse contexto, o fortalecimento da gestão da conformidade, a otimização das estratégias de mercado e o aprimoramento das capacidades de controle de riscos comerciais são essenciais para os exportadores chineses de resina fenólica que buscam crescimento sustentável no Brasil e no mercado latino-americano em geral. Site: www.elephchem.comWhatsApp: (+)86 13851435272E-mail: admin@elephchem.com